"The Fed has never kept the target fed funds rate at peak levels for longer than nine months after a tightening cycle," Arone said. Nine months from now, at least based on history, the target fed funds rate is likely to be lower, not higher." He also sees lower rates ahead and pointed out the history of what happens with tight monetary policy. "The market is eager for lower rates or rate cuts. If the Fed has to rate cuts, it's likely because we're in recession or something in the capital markets is broken," he said.

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Persons: Jerome Powell, aren't, Michael Arone, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Arone, Barry Sternlicht, —, I'm, They've, Thomas Ryan, Nick Elfner, Elfner, Breckinridge, Street's Arone Organizations: Federal, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Fed, JPMorgan, Starwood Capital, Future Investment Initiative, Capital Economics, Breckinridge Capital Advisors Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Breckinridge